Empirical Research on Us Inflation Persistence

Constant coefficient method is the traditional way to measure the persistence of inflation series. But this kind of method can not reflect effectively the change of breakpoint and economic situation. To the lack of the existing methods, the paper examines the breakpoint change in the coefficient of inflation persistence in the United States, and at the same time studies the changes of persistence characteristics of United States inflation rate by using time-varying coefficient model. The analysis shows that there exists breakpoint change in the inflation persistence coefficient in the United States; inflation persistence coefficient in the United States ranges from 0.7132 to 0.8826; the persistence coefficient continued to decline in the mid2008, and etc.